Buy your submarines from Japan, says US

A Japanese Soryu class submarine.

Powerful sections of the US and Australian national secu­rity establishments have come ­together to restate their longstanding preference for Australia to choose Japanese rather than German or French replacement submarines for the six Collins-class boats.

Former US deputy secretary of state Rich Armitage, who founded the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue between the three countries, and who remains an extremely ­influential figure in US national security, told The Australian : “I certainly hope that the Australian Navy chooses the Japanese submarine.”

Asked whether this repre­sented the consensus view among relevant US officials, Mr Armitage said: “It’s the widely held view among those who follow Asia.”

Andrew Shearer, the national security adviser to prime ministers Tony Abbott and John Howard, argues strongly in a research paper written for the Centre for Strategic and Inter­national Studies in Washington that Canberra should choose the Japanese ­option if the subs meet the performance criteria. His paper will be launched today in Washington by US Assistant Secretary of ­Defence Robert Scher.

Although launching the paper does not automatically mean Mr Scher endorses its content, it is highly unusual for such a senior Pentagon figure to launch a work by a private Australian citizen.

Mr Shearer, who is currently a distinguished visiting fellow at CSIS, writes: “Subject to being satisfied that the Japanese submarine proposal will meet capability requirements, minimise risks and provide value for money, Aus­tralia’s final decision on its ­replacement submarine capability should reflect the substantial strategic and operational benefits of partnering with Japan (which do not exist in the case of France or Germany).”

Malcolm Turnbull yesterday told Sky News’ Australian Agenda that the ­announcement of the winning tender, after the finalisation of the competitive evaluation process, would depend on the timing of the election.

He did not guarantee the choice would be made before the election. “A huge amount of work has gone into it and the government will take that decision with great care, recognising that we are dealing with the national security of Australia and the investment of billions and billions of dollars,” the Prime Minister said.

In January, Mr Shearer published an article in a US foreign policy journal in which he argued that the Japanese option was strongly, though privately, preferred by the Americans, ­although their public position has been one of formal neutrality and respect for Canberra’s right to make its own choice.

Mr Shearer co-authored that piece with Mike Green, the senior vice-president for Asia at CSIS and a former senior Asia director at the US National Security Council. They wrote: “Senior US officials and military officers are in no doubt both as to the superior capability of the Japanese Soryu- class and to the long-term strategic benefits to the US and the ­region of an interoperable fleet of Australian and Japanese conventional submarines.”

Mr Shearer told The Australian he and Dr Green “stand by that statement 100 per cent”. He also said it was not a ­description of a former US preference, but ­described the view of US officials and military officers now.

This was in response to some press reporting in Australia which cast doubt on the widely accepted understanding the Americans preferred the Japanese ­option.

The Australian has had the ­accuracy of the Shearer-Green-­Armitage description of the broad Washington view confirmed privately by senior US uniformed ­officers, senior US civilians and highly placed figures in the Australian system as well as in the Australian government.

One insider suggested to The Australian the German government had applied substantial pressure to the Obama administration, asking it to publicly ­restate its formal neutrality.

Washington’s position always has been the decision is entirely Australia’s to make, and it does not want to interfere in any way. It further took the view that, with Germany, France and Japan all being US allies, it was not going to be disobliging to any of the three.

However, privately, the Americans are clear they see enormous benefit in Canberra choosing the Japanese option, both for the quality of the submarine involved and for the development of deeper strategic, maritime co-operation between Canberra, Washington and Tokyo. It is understood Admiral Harry Harris, the commander of the US Pacific Command in Hawaii, has expressed this view in numerous private discussions.

The submarines will likely cost $50 billion to buy and build, and perhaps twice that over their lifetime to sustain, making them the biggest defence project in our ­history, and one of the biggest in the world.

Senior officials involved in the process from the start say it is wrong to suggest that the Abbott government ever contemplated buying a Soryu sub off the shelf and unmodified from Japan.

The different geography and strategic circumstances of Japan mean its submarines do not have the endurance or range Australia requires, so that it was always ­envisaged they would need to be modified. Supporters of the Japanese ­option argue that the degree of the modification ­required is less than that for the one of the Germans, who plan to double the size of their main conventional submarine for Australia, or the French, who plan to offer a conventional version of their nuclear submarine.

Correction: an earlier version of the story referred to the Scher-Green-­Armitage description of the broad Washington view, instead of the Shearer-Green-­Armitage description.

(Source : theaustralian.com.au)

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