South China Sea: Big powers now manoeuvring through troubled waters

PHOTO: Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has long positioned himself as independent of the US.

As President Rodrigo Duterte contemplates his next move after the Philippines' win in the South China Sea territorial dispute, he may well be thinking of the old adage: "Be careful what you wish for."

When he heard the news, he reportedly wasn't jumping for joy.

Urging a restrained response, but irritated by diplomatic pressure from China, the recently-elected Philippines President had to weigh his options.

Manila may have won the legal victory, but with China digging in and rejecting the International Court of Arbitration's ruling, not much has changed.

The emerging superpower's aggressive islands development and claims to sovereignty in the disputed waters remain unaltered.

He would have been painfully aware that his country has no naval muscle to enforce the ruling, while at the same time US aircraft carriers were patrolling the neighbourhood in the West Philippines Sea.

Accounts leaked from a special cabinet meeting on July 12 indicate the Philippines leader felt the show of force by the US Navy would help protect his country's back.

"Let them send their ships," Mr Duterte reportedly told his ministers.

However, underscoring the sensitivities at play, he added: "But I can't say that openly."

This was not just to avoid provoking China. He also wanted to protect his political reputation of talking tough with the US.

The timing is bad for Mr Duterte.

Just when the Philippines has a popular leader wanting to shake off the "US pawn" reputation so often applied to the country, a situation has arisen where it again needs the US as a defence partner.

A position never more so, since the Second World War.

PHOTO: Supporters of the Philippines cheer as the Hague ruling is announced. (Ben Bohane)

Adding to the power play is Russia's more nuanced role in the region — it is not taking sides publicly in the dispute, but will be joining China for joint exercises in the South China Sea next month.

It's a sign of growing military co-operation between Beijing and Moscow.

The Philippines hasn't ever had a president like Mr Duterte.

Part of his popular appeal lies in a maverick approach to tackling big issues head-on. Chief among them, his controversial war on drugs and his push for a more federal system of government.

He is also directly dealing with a range of insurgencies that have plagued the Philippines for decades, from communist guerrillas to Muslim separatists.

He's determined to finally end these entrenched struggles.

Hague ruling complicates foreign relations

Mr Duterte has long positioned himself as independent of the US, saying the Philippines "doesn't need" his country's long-term ally.

Reports have described the president's "hatred" of Washington and he has been quoted as blaming the US for much of the terrorism and extremism in the world.

"It is not the Middle East that is exporting terrorism to America. America imported terrorism to the Middle East," he said.

PHOTO: Philippines celebrates its win in the International Court of Arbitration. (Ben Bohane)

Now, by talking openly with both China and Russia he has signalled a more neutral foreign policy, while keeping an alert eye on those countries' investment potential.

Before the court ruling, Mr Duterte made it clear he wanted "co-operation, not confrontation" with China.

He was open to direct bilateral talks and held meetings with the Chinese to discuss building a high-speed rail network.

But the South China Sea decision has effectively muddied the waters.

The US is taking a cautious approach to both Mr Duterte and the territorial ruling, calling for calm but also insisting the outcome be honoured.

Beijing's defiant brinkmanship has been bolstered by the top regional grouping, ASEAN, remaining silent on the issue at its recent summit.

China holds tremendous economic sway over some member countries.

For his part, Mr Duterte has pragmatically put aside personal feelings, saying he would ask the US for help in any serious escalation.

If it came to a crisis in the West Philippines Sea, "then the national interest dictates it," he declared.

Scarborough Shoal, just 250km off the Philippines coast, remains the potential flashpoint.

Beijing and Manila both want to avoid direct military engagement and may leave it to proxies like China's maritime militia to maintain possession while a diplomatic outcome is negotiated.

President Duterte must now dance nimbly between the competing powers if he is to finally swing the full advantage from the court decision his way.

(Source : abc.net.au)

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