China could begin reclamation in disputed Scarborough Shoal as early as next month
China won’t be folding over the South China Sea any time soon.
JUDGING by fresh reports, China won’t be folding to stern threats over the South China Sea any time soon.
In a bold move that would be sure to raise tensions, the emerging superpower may be ramping up its attempt to reclaim the Scarborough Shoal, a key disputed territory in the area.
On the weekend, the South China Morning Post reported that the country could begin reclamation work in the shoal as early as next month.
The report said there would be no major developments until after the G20 summit next month, but that construction may begin before the US presidential election in November.
A source, who requested anonymity, said: “Since the G20 will be held in Hangzhou next month, and regional peace will be the main topic among leaders of the great powers, China will refrain from (acting on the) reclamation plan.”
In other words, Beijing could take provocative action anywhere between September 6 and November 8, the date of the US election, in a move that would almost certainly exacerbate ongoing tensions with the US.
The timing strategically makes sense, as it’s likely the country would not wish to risk exacerbating tensions at the prestigious G20 summit.
China could begin reclamation mark in the Scarborough Shoal as early as next month, after the G20 summit.Source:AP
The source also suggested China could take advantage of the United States’ focus on its own upcoming election, which would detract from any escalatory moves in the South China Sea.
“US President Barack Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office. That might make him busy and he might not have time to take care of regional security issues,” the source said.
This suggests action in the lead-up to the US election would be more likely.
WHAT’S SO BOLD ABOUT THIS MOVE?
The hotly-disputed Scarborough Shoal has long been claimed by China, Taiwan and the Philippines, with the United States — which has no claims in the region — insisting any attempt to militarise the area would be crossing a “red line”.
In March, US President Obama warned there would be “serious consequences” if China pursued reclamation of the Scarborough Shoal.
At the time, China withdrew its ships from the area — a move which was regarded as a sign of defeat.
But over the past few weeks, China has reportedly been stepping up its presence in the disputed zone.
Pentagon officials say the number of Chinese maritime security vessels near the area has risen sharply over the past few weeks, the Washington Free Beacon reported.
Meanwhile, satellite photos have recently emerged revealing reinforced hangars designed to house combat jets on several of Beijing’s artificial outposts.
The images, distributed by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, showed military infrastructure being built on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs, which are all part of the various disputed territories.
The report stated each island would soon be capable of housing 24 fighter jets along with three or four larger aircraft, such as those with surveillance, bomber or tanker roles, allowing Beijing to stage a force of some 70 combat aircraft in the area.
A spokesman for the CSIS said even the smallest hangars are larger than needed for civilian purposes, saying the hangars were “reinforced to take a strike”.
Earlier this month, China’s official press agency, Xinhua, reported the country’s air force was sending bombers and fighters jets on “combat patrols” near contested islands in the disputed area.
A senior colonel said it was all part of taking wider safety measures.
China has notably stepped up its game since an international tribunal unanimously concluded it had no territorial claims in the South China Sea last month.
It found no evidence that the country historically exercised exclusive control over the water or its resources, concluding that there was “no legal basis for China to claim historic rights” over the nine-dash line.
But the country doesn’t recognise this ruling as legitimate. Chinese president Xi Jinping maintained the ruling would not impact their decision in any way, saying: “China’s territorial sovereignty and marine rights in the South China Sea will not be affected by the so-called Philippines South China Sea ruling in any way.”
Ever since then, the country has stepped up combat patrols in the region.
EX-OBAMA ADVISER’S WARNING TO AUSTRALIA
Australia has key strategic interests with both the United States and China, meaning we’d ideally hope to avoid having to “choose” a side no matter what.
But a former top intelligence adviser to President Obama said Australia could play a crucial role if a war broke out between the two major powers.
David C Gompert led a US Army-commissioned report called ‘War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable’, which said a hypothetical war between the two powers would be massive.
“Depending on the cause and focus of the conflict, other East Asian states would mostly side with the United States in varying degrees: from support ranging from permission to use bases to the possible commitment of forces (eg Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines),” the report says.
Mr Gompert said a war between the US and China would be “long and fierce”.
Speaking to ABC Radio’s The World Today, he said Australia’s role could be “consequential”.
“For Australia to support the United States in logistical ways, for Australian forces to take on missions that American forces had been fulfilling, freeing up for the conflict,” he said.
“For Australian forces to actually enter operations, and of course American and Australian forces do know how to operate together — that would produce significant operational consequences for the Chinese.”
(Source : news.com.au)
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